Spotify’s Upcoming Q1 Results Could Propel the Stock Much Higher

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Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) plans on releasing its first-quarter results on Wednesday, April 27. That could help push SPOT stock higher, as it has had a rough time so far this year. (SPOT is down 42% year-to-date).

Last quarter, the company reported revenue growth of 24% year-over-year (YoY) to almost $2.69 billion. Most of the company’s revenue is from premium subscriptions, but its ad revenue is now growing quickly. In Q4 it rose 40% to $394 million, or 14.6% of the total. This is higher than its normal 90%/10% premium to ad revenue split.

Paul Vogel, Spotify’s CEO, recently told a Morgan Stanley conference that increasing podcast spots are driving its growth in ad revenue. Podcast revenue has also led to higher ad revenue, a source of growth for Spotify. Apparently, people are more willing to listen to ads while listening to podcasts than listening to music.

Spotify recently pulled its employees out of Russia, so that could hurt its Q1 revenue, but its underlying growth is strong. For example, analysts surveyed by Refinitiv (seen on Yahoo Finance) forecast 11.4% higher growth for Q1.

As it stands, analysts now forecast an 18.7% growth in revenue this year from $10.68 billion to $12.68 billion. This likely coincides with its underlying growth in monthly active users (MAUs). Last year, Spotify had an 18% growth in MAUs to 406 million. This included a 16% growth in paid subscribers and a 19% growth in ad-related MAUs.

Refinitiv’s survey of 26 analysts shows that SPOT stock will reach a target price of $231.17. That represents a 64% upside in the stock which closed at $141.28 on April 8. In addition, TipRanks reports that its survey of 23 analysts that have written on the stock in the last 3 months has an average target price of $232.86. That is a potential gain of 64.8% in Spotify stock.

As a result, assuming that its Q1 results show its growth is on track, SPOT stock could move significantly higher.

On the date of publication, Mark Hake did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

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